Pawar’s Headache. Rahul Gandhi’s charge on Savarkar
Rahul Gandhi’s statement on Savarkar in late March created quite a flutter in Maharashtra politics. When asked whether he will apologize, after a session court in Surat convicted him in a defamation case, he made a grandstanding statement — “I am not Savarkar, I am a Gandhi”. What followed was a sharp retort from Uddhav Thackeray, a Congress ally, saying that “Savarkar was our God”; and then Sharad Pawar stepped in to eulogize Savarkar in a bid to broker peace. Barring some commentary by DK Singh of the Print, I have not found the National Media doing much analysis of what is happening in Maharashtra.
This event is no storm in a teacup. There is a reason why it has prompted the ruling Government to invest its Capital in a Savarkar Gaurav Yatra and for Pawar, the shrewd fox of Maharashtra Politics to step in. Rahul Gandhi fancies himself as the great Savarkar baiter, imagining himself to be giving a body blow to the ideological foundations of the BJP. His Savarkar baiting has given him limited results so far, but in Maharashtra it has the potential to rock the carefully crafted coalition of unlikely partners that Pawar has stitched up. Here are two reasons why.
First. Savarkar may not be popular among the larger Indian populace, but in Maharashtra, he is a hero to many. That he was one of the earliest revolutionaries, who inspired many a freedom fighters is well known. His incarceration in the cellular jail and how he stood up to tyranny over there is folklore. But, beyond that, Savarkar is also a colossus whose contribution to Marathi literature is seldom matched. To many Savarkar was to Marathi what Shakespeare was to English. In addition to being a prolific writer and poet, to his credit are many words he introduced in the Marathi Vocabulary, that are commonly used today. Where it is difficult to coin a single new word in a well established language like Marathi, Savarkar contributed 45. Words like Mahapour (Mayor), Paryavekshak (Supervisor), Saarvamat (Plebicite), Vidhimandal (Assembly) are routinely used today. Savarkar has a committed following in Maharashtra, so baiting him in Maharashtra is likely to have political costs. And Rahul Gandhi has now done this twice.
While the above was probably playing on Pawar’s mind, the second reason is what has pushed him into action. Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the coalition between the Congress, Pawar’s NCP and Shiv Sena was always fragile, but still potent. The split in the Shiv Sena, engineered earlier by the BJP, has created a unique situation. Elections are typically won by parties by protecting their committed votes and grabbing a large share of the swing votes. The swing votes are often a small portion of the total votes, even as low as 10-20% sometimes. But they are decisive, and hence form a large part of all the strategizing that political parties do. For instance, the BJP in may states has been able to swing the OBC votes to itself, which has paid it rich dividends. It’s overtures to Pasmanda Muslims now is also part of the same strategy. With the above-mentioned split in the Sena, for once now the size of the swing vote in Maharashtra has dramatically gone up, because no one really knows for sure where the average Sena voter will swing towards. Thackeray’s biggest trump card has been his family name and the associated emotional connect. Shiv Sena voter base, at least in Mumbai and Konkan, is made up of emotional voters who revere the late Balasaheb Thackeray. But any offense to Savarkar, whom even the late Balasaheb revered, and who is probably a bigger ideological fount for the Shiv Sena, than for the BJP, is not likely to cut ice with many Sena Voters. And the last thing that Pawar wants is for Uddhav Thackeray to walk into the arms of the BJP, chased out by Rahul Gandhi’s speeches. Or, for a large section of the Sena swing vote to go to the Shinde faction, because they start wondering how could they possibly vote for a person (Uddhav Thackeray in this case) who cozies up to those who insult our ideological heroes.
If I put myself in Pawar’s shoes right now, I was probably sitting pretty after engineering a split between Sena and BJP in 2019. Now I had the committed vote share of all three components of the MVA to keep the BJP out of power. With BJP further splitting Sena in 2022, it created a headache for me, but all was not lost till I had Mr. Thackeray with me. But now this salvo from Rahul Gandhi is threatening to rock my boat. How do I save it?
